Water Astra ArisannaTier 2
at EVO Regional
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.7%
avg ELO +8.9 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1157
· median 1157
· range 1157–1157
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1187
Q3 1381
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
